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US GDP: IT WILL TAKE TIME TO DIG OUT OF THE (GDP) HOLE

What information companies in Asia should tell their cross border clients with an interest in exporting to the USA:

The shape of things to come.  This recession is the worst since World War II.  The advance estimate of US GDP for the second quarter of 2009 fell at an annual rate of 1% from the first quarter.  The first quarter’s decline was revised upwards to an annual rate of 6.4%.  Real GDP is now down by 3.7% from its peak in the fourth quarter of 2007.

Negative contributors were personal consumption (-0.88%) and private investment (-2.64, of which -0.83% represented a decline in inventories).  Positive contributors were net exports (1.38%), federal and state government spending (1.12%)

The federal budget deficit is now 13% of GDP, double the previous peacetime record of 6.4% in 1983, which helped to bail out the recession of 1980/81.

US consumer discovered frugality driving up the savings to 5.2%, the highest level since 1998.

More timely economic indicators such as the Chicago purchasing mangers’ index remains at a 43.4 recessional level, suggesting a slowing decline rather than a rapid recovery.  The US economy may be at the bottom of this (economic) pit for a considerable time.  Digging out being slow and difficult.   Source: Breakingviews.com

US information industry executives reported in Q2 earnings reports continued declines in revenues and that they do not see any improvement short term.  D&B’s management stated that the commercial credit information business was more sensitive to economic conditions than previously anticipated.

BIIA Newsletter September 2009 Issue

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