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Australian Credit Climate: Business Expectations Slump Amid Interest Rate Fears

Employment expectations again hit negative territory as firms negate rising wages

  • Sales expectations are down 2 points to an index of 8, the lowest of the last nine quarters and five points below the 10-year average index of 13
  • An increase of five points has taken the profits expectations index to 3, just three points below the 10-year average index of 6
  • Employment expectations are down two points to an index of -5, the second negative in nine quarters and now seven points below the 10-year average index of 2
  • The inventories index is down three points to an index of 1, two points below the 10-year average index
  • A rise of three points has taken the capital investment index to 4, a turn-around of the rapid decline of the previous two quarters and now just one point below the average index (5) of the last 10 years
  • The selling prices index is up four points, now ten points below the 10-year average of 30

According to Dr Duncan Ironmonger, Dun & Bradstreet’s economic consultant, the cautious consumer, the high value of the Australian dollar and the slight surge in the underlying inflation rate are all restraining the current rates of growth in the Australian manufacturing and retailing sectors. However, in the medium term the very strong growth in investment in the resources sector will maintain the overall rate of growth of real GDP in the Australian economy.

Source: Dun & Bradstreet Australia Business Expectation Survey

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